Imagine that the US is preparing for an outbreak of an unusually deadly flu, which is expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative programs to combat this disease have been proposed. Assume that the exact scientific estimate of the consequences of the programs are as follows:
If Program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved.
If Program B is adopted, there is a l/3 probability that 600 people will be saved, and a 2/3 probability that no people will be saved.
Which of the two programs would you favor?
A is post popularly chosen, 72% HC: 86%
Imagine that the US is preparing for a nuclear fallout, which is expected to kill 600 people.
Two alternate programs to prepare for the fallout have been proposed. Assume that the exact scientific estimate of the consequences of the program are as follows:
If Program C is adopted, 400 people will die.
If Program D is adopted, there is a 1/3 probability that nobody will die, and a 2/3 probability that 600 people will die.
Which of the two programs do you favor?
D is most popular, 78% HC: 50%
Imagine that you face the following pair of concurrent decisions. First examine both decisions, then indicate the options you prefer.
Decision 1 -- Choose between:
A. A sure gain of $240
B. A 25% chance to gain $1000 and a 75% chance to gain nothing.
Decision 2 -- Choose between:
C. A sure loss of $750
D. A 75% chance to lose $1000 and a 25% chance to lose nothing.
For each decision, indicate option you prefer.
A and D chosen about 73% of time HC: 80%
Imagine that you face the following pair of concurrent decisions. First examine both options, then indicate the one you prefer.
Choose between:
A. A 25% chance to win $240 and a 75% chance to lose $760.
B. A 25% chance to win $250 and a 75% chance to lose $750.
B is preferred, about 100% of time. HC: 100%
Which of the following options do you prefer?
A. A sure win of $30.
B. An 80% chance to win $45.
A is preferred, 78% HC: 53%
Consider the following two-stage game. In the first stage, there is a 75% chance to end the game without winning anything, and a 25% chance to move into the second stage. If you reach the second stage, you have a choice between:
C. A sure win of $30.
D. An 80% chance to win $45.
NOTE: Your choice must be made before the game starts -- that is, before the outcome of the first stage is known.
Indicate the option you prefer.
C is preferred. 74% of time HC: 47%
Which of the following options do you prefer?
Option E. A 25% chance to win $30.
Option F. A 20% chance to win $45.
F is preferred, 58% time HC: 65%
Imagine that you decided to see a play where admission is $10 per ticket. As you enter the theatre, you discover that you have lost a $10 bill.
Would you still pay $10 for a ticket to the play?
Yes is preferred. About 88% of time. HC: 88%
Imagine that you decided to see a play and paid the admission of $10 per ticket. As you enter the theatre, you discover that you have lost the ticket. The seat was not marked and the ticket cannot be recovered.
Would you pay another $10 for another ticket?
No is preferred, about 54% of time HC: 50%
Imagine that you are about to purchase a calculator for $15. The calculator salesperson informs you that the calculator you wish to buy is on sale for $10 at the other branch of the store, located 20 minutes drive away.
Would you make the trip to the other store?
Yes is preferred, 68% of time. HC: 47%
Imagine that you are about to purchase a jacket for $125. The salesperson informs you that the jacket you wish to buy is on sale for $120 at the other branch of the store, located 20 minutes drive away.
Would you make the trip to the other store?
No is preferred. 71% of time.: HC 47%